Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
